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Reachy's weekly opinion column
Random Ramble

So it looks like Mr. Bush didn't keep his campaign promises very well, as is evident from his pro-bigot stance on global warming. Shows you how much politicians can be taken for their word. Well, there is currently much talk about a recession and consumer confidence sleeping and what not. E
vidence? Well the Time cover this week reads: "Looking Beyond the Bear." And the cover of Fortune Magazine? "Uh-Oh! There Goes Consumer Confidence. Can a Recession be Far Behind?" This is what the psychology of the times is economically. But I don't think a recession will be coming any time soon, at least in light of current economic data. The primary reason I believe this is that housing is still strong: construction remains healthy, and home values and upstarts remain strong.

 

Market Wrap

Stocks are still looking good. I am highly optimistic for the future of several (though certain not all) technology issues. Large cap issues such as Cisco Systems, Oracle, Sun Microsystems, Nokia, et cetera seem now to be fairly valued (for an optimistic appraisal, check out Morningstar's Business Appraisal in the Snapshot section of their page). Nonethelss, market volatility in the short term remains high, and so day-to-day price patterns should be effectively disregarded for these issues. Some Internet stocks remain overvalued, in my opinion, such as Amazon (target price: $6.50). In addition, some high P/E issues such as EMC still remain slightly overvalued, though they too are nearing their bottoms (like Siebel, which I currently hold). Pessimism remains high, and the higher pessimism rages, the closer we are to a bottom. With the climactic sell-offs in the Dow recently, and the large outflow of funds from mutual funds, things are looking quite good.